Martinez, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

489
FXUS62 KCAE 070849
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
449 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Severe weather potential increases somewhat starting today,
with another round possible Sunday as an active weather pattern
develops. Conditions are favorable for several rounds of
thunderstorms to push through the Southeast into early next
week. This active weather pattern will likely persist through
much of the long term with a high chance to likely PoPs most
days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Some strong-severe thunderstorms possible this evening after
  likely the hottest day of 2025 so far.

A weak shortwave is cutting across the region early this morning,
which brought some light showers over the western Midlands
overnight. Otherwise, clearing is expected behind this shortwave
throughout Saturday morning with increasing southwesterly flow and
gusty winds. With building heights, southwest flow, and partly
cloudy skies, temps will climb into the mid-90`s for much of the
area. By early afternoon, a developing MCS across TN and AL will
start to accelerate and dive southeast across GA into the
evening. Ahead of the MCS, moderate-high instability will
develop with 2000- 3000 ML CAPE across the CSRA and southern
Midlands. Additional cloud cover across northern SC will keep
instability a bit weaker towards the SC-NC border. Enhanced mid-
level flow along with robust instability favor a well
maintained MCS through diurnal heating hours as it dives into
GA. The HRRR consistently has a very reasonable depiction of the
MCS progression, from central GA into the CSRA and southern
Midlands, weakening quickly into SC. Timing-wise the HRRR
brings the MCS in around or after 00z, hence the weakening as
heating and instability fall off. Typically a strong cold pool
driven system will outpace guidance by a few hours and typically
propagate closer to the strongest instability than what the hi-
res model explicitly depicts.

So piecing this all together, a weakening MCS will likely push into
the CSRA and SC this evening, between 6-9pm. Some damaging wind
gusts are possible, especially in eastern GA with the threat
decreasing further east into SC. Additionally, based on the
instability gradient, the threat looks higher south of I-20.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Severe weather possible again on Sunday and Monday.
- Damaging wind gusts both days will be the main threat.

Active period of weather will be possible Sunday through Monday as a
series of shortwaves moving through the region will bring with them
two separate Mesoscale Convective Systems.

For Sunday, the day should start off with yet another decaying
MCS moving into the CSRA and western Midlands. After that
morning system moves through, additional activity could be
possible late in the afternoon. There remains some uncertainty
in regards to later afternoon/evening thunderstorms on Sunday,
with convective models not in general agreement. Much may depend
on where outflow boundaries from morning convection end up. SPC
has the cwa in a Slight Risk for severe storms.

On Monday, Deepening upper trough will continues digging
eastward towards the region. Additional shortwave energy will be
moving around this trough out of the lower Mississippi river
valley to start off the day. As this activity moves east through
the day, another potential round of storms strong to severe
storms will develop across the cwa Monday afternoon and again
overnight. Another Slight Risk from SPC encompasses the entire
forecast area for Monday.

All in all, high confidence in convective activity both days
being strong to severe with damaging winds, but low confidence
in exact coverage and timing of MCS`s as they develop and move
through.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Active weather pattern continues in the long term, although
  convection may become more diurnal each afternoon and
  evening.

Ensembles showing upper trough moving through the area on
Tuesday, the some upper ridging takes hold into the end of the
week. A series of surface fronts will move towards and
eventually stall out near the forecast area through this period.
Should be enough moisture and low-level instability to produce
some shower and thunderstorm activity each afternoon, with a few
stronger storms still not out of the question. Temperatures
above normal each day.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon before storms
possible this evening.

Decaying showers will bring some additional mid-level cloud
cover early this morning but VFR conditions are expected to
continue with only some summer cu in the afternoon. Gusty winds
will then develop by mid-morning, out of the southwest with some
gusts to around 25 knots likely through the afternoon. This
evening, a strong line of storms will push towards the area. A
prob30 group for TSRA is included for now as timing confidence
is relatively low. Overall, confidence is higher in impacts at
AGS and DNL compared to the other sites. Tempo group likely
warranted with the next TAF issuance for those sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture remains in place over the
area through the middle of next week, leading to potential
early morning restrictions and diurnal convection each day.
Thunderstorms over the weekend may also bring restrictions along
with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$